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Geopolitical Intelligence · Published Open

Decision infrastructure
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Mechanism-aware geopolitical analysis for the questions that move markets. Published to the portal as events warrant. Free access with email sign-in — no inbox spam, no paywall, no upsell.

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Iran ceasefire collapse · Hormuz repricing · Critical Powell probe dropped · Warsh confirmation · High Trade tariffs · East Asia · Elevated European rates · ECB guidance · Medium Gulf logistics · Insurance markets · Medium Iran ceasefire collapse · Hormuz repricing · Critical Powell probe dropped · Warsh confirmation · High Trade tariffs · East Asia · Elevated European rates · ECB guidance · Medium Gulf logistics · Insurance markets · Medium
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Signal is entry.
Mechanism is the product.

Clean summaries and structured alerts are table stakes. What actually clarifies a situation is the mechanism read — which lever is working, which currency flinched first, what the timing tells you about the underlying constraint. Stradyn works the mechanism, not the headline.

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Critical

Iran Seizes Two Container Ships

Gulf transits detained overnight. Brent crosses $103 as war-risk premiums spike. Fourth session above $100; friction now structural.

Gulf / Maritime

ECB April 30: Asymmetric Hike Risk

Markets price 82% hold probability. Lagarde's hawkish bias and CPI at 2.5% create meaningful surprise-hike scenario.

Europe / Rates

China-Pakistan Peace Plan

Third-draft framework circulates alongside Vienna track. Beijing converts US-Iran war into long-term institutional gain.

Asia / Iran

Lebanon Disarmament Pressure

Lebanese government at Hezbollah inflection point. Banking and correspondent-banking exposures now warrant review.

Levant

Lufthansa Cancels 20,000 Flights

Europe's largest carrier cuts summer schedule on jet fuel economics. Aviation first sector to adjust operations to new baseline.

Global Macro
Written for readers who want the mechanism, not the headline

Four surfaces.
One mechanism read.

Everything on the portal. Free access with email sign-in. Refreshed as events warrant, not on a fixed schedule pretending to be one.

01

Daily Signal Brief

What moved overnight and what it actually means. One thesis, one mechanism read, one repositioning frame. Weekday mornings on the portal.

  • Weekday mornings · read in four minutes
  • Structural read, not news roundup
  • Closes with an explicit call and horizon
  • Full archive on the portal
02

Weekly Synthesis

The cycle's dominant themes, worked as a matrix. Eight sectors × eight vectors. Where the pressure actually is and where it's about to move.

  • Published Sundays · read in ten minutes
  • Cycle-level read, not week-level
  • Named vectors with repositioning frames
  • Full week archive on the portal
03

Scenarios & Forecasts

Probability tracking on tail outcomes, benchmarked against consensus markets. Where the divergence is and what it implies.

  • Stradyn vs Polymarket, side by side
  • Named inflection points and horizons
  • Updated when the picture actually changes
  • Timestamp-validated resolutions
04

Forward Read

90-day calendar of decision-forcing events. When each catalyst is expected to resolve, what it will move, and how the read updates as things settle.

  • Rolling 90-day horizon
  • Central bank meetings · policy deadlines · elections
  • Event-driven refresh
  • Resolution log with no retroactive scoring

The analysis is what I'd write anyway.

Stradyn is a personal publishing project. Sharing the work openly is more useful than gating it. The email sign-in is how I keep the portal a reasonable place to publish rather than a wide-open target — not a paywall, not a mailing list you'll regret joining.

The read lives on the portal. Sign in with your email and you'll see everything that's published — Daily Brief, Weekly Synthesis, Scenarios, Forward Read — updated as events warrant. Nothing lands in your inbox. You come to it when you want to.

Written by Joel Waldman. Mechanism-aware analysis with a 30-day capital-allocation horizon. Primary sources only.

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The Stradyn Thesis
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What it is for
"Clarity is the entry point. Mechanism is the product. Most geopolitical coverage tells you what happened. The work that actually clarifies a situation tells you which lever is working, which currency flinched first, and what the timing reveals about the underlying constraint. Stradyn works the mechanism, and shares that read openly."
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